Mideast tensions continue to strain airline capacity, global flight networks

The aviation sector is once again grappling with a rapidly evolving and uncertain situation as tensions in the Middle East continue to unfold. While there is cautious hope for a resolution, airlines remain focused on managing immediate operational challenges. A review of current schedule data for the week of March 23, along with projections for the weeks ahead, shows that carriers are swiftly adjusting to the ongoing disruption, report Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye.

In the early stages of such crises, airline operations often descend into what can best be described as “managed chaos.” Flight schedules are disrupted, aircraft and crew are displaced, and passengers grow increasingly frustrated—particularly as airlines themselves work to assemble reliable information in real time.

Smoke rises from a fire at Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026, after a drone attack by Iran. Photo: Fadel Senna/AFP

Now, roughly a month into the disruption, around 1.7 million seats have been removed from schedules. This accounts for nearly one-third of the capacity originally planned for the final week of February. Current data suggests capacity could recover to about 4.4 million seats next week, although this may prove optimistic. Airlines based in the region are likely to continue trimming schedules, potentially keeping weekly capacity closer to 3.6 million for the time being.

The impact has not been uniform across carriers. Airlines based in Saudi Arabia appear to be operating close to normal levels, largely supported by strong domestic demand—a factor not evident elsewhere in the region. In contrast, major hub carriers have made substantial cuts compared to pre-conflict operations. Emirates has reduced capacity by about 40 per cent, Qatar Airways by 62 per cent, Etihad by 50 per cent, and Air Arabia by 64 per cent.

In addition, 44 airlines that had planned Middle East operations in late February have suspended all services until at least the end of April. Combined, these cancellations account for roughly 245,000 seats per week. Looking further ahead, reductions persist: Wizz Air has cancelled more than 450 flights scheduled for late May, while British Airways has withdrawn 266 flights that were previously available for booking.

Asian airlines yet to fill the gap

There has been speculation that reduced connectivity through the Middle East could prompt Asian airlines to increase direct services between Asia and Europe, particularly from hubs such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur. However, early indications suggest this shift has been limited. For May, only modest increases are visible. Singapore Airlines has added 13 extra flights to London Gatwick, while Turkish Airlines has scheduled 35 additional services across routes including Beijing and Bangkok.

In reality, the idea that airlines can quickly redeploy aircraft to new markets at short notice is largely impractical. Launching new routes requires aircraft availability, crew resources, and sufficient demand—factors that are not easily aligned, especially for what may prove a temporary opportunity. As a result, most airlines have opted to maintain their existing plans rather than introduce major changes.

For the industry, this situation is not entirely unfamiliar. Airlines are once again adapting to external shocks while hoping for a return to stability. Regional carriers are expected to restore operations relatively quickly once conditions improve, given the importance of their hub networks. For international airlines, however, the recovery may be more gradual, potentially taking several months before services return to previous levels. Nonetheless, a full recovery is expected over time.