Global tourism growth slows to 0.4% in first half of 2026

International tourist arrivals grew by just 0.4 percent in the first half of 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East, elevated oil prices and inflation weighed on travel demand, UN Tourism said in its latest World Tourism Barometer, released on September 17.

An estimated 690 million people travelled internationally between January and June, about 3 million more than the corresponding period of the last year, the agency said.

Arrivals increased by 2 percent in the first quarter but declined by 1 percent in the second quarter, following a 3 percent drop in April. UN Tourism attributed the second-quarter decline largely to the timing of Easter, which began in March, and the impact of the conflict. Global arrivals fell 3 percent in June, driven by a 6 percent decline in Western Europe, partly due to a heatwave in some destinations.

The conflict has affected international tourism in the Middle East and other regions since early March, the agency said. Disruptions to air traffic gradually eased in May and June after a ceasefire was announced, allowing some routes to reopen and leading to an uneven recovery in consumer sentiment.

By region, Africa, up 4 percent, and Europe, up 3 percent, recorded solid growth in the first half, while arrivals in the Americas increased by 2 percent, with mixed results across sub-regions. The Middle East, directly affected by the conflict, saw arrivals decline by 22 percent.

Asia and the Pacific grew by 1 percent but remained 11 percent below 2019 levels, as disrupted air connectivity, higher airfares and uncertainty weighed on travel within the region, UN Tourism said. North-East Asia grew by 3 percent, while South Asia, down 5 percent, and South-East Asia, down 1 percent, recorded declines compared with the first half of 2025.

In June, South-East Asia saw arrivals fall by 5 percent amid weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, disruptions to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs. Some destinations in Oceania, affected by Typhoon Sinlaku in the second quarter, saw arrivals decline by 6 percent in June.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the data showed a sector absorbing real pressure while finding a way forward. ‘Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,’ she said. 

She added that the situation in the Middle East had affected destinations far beyond the region, serving as a reminder that resilience needs to be built everywhere and not only when a crisis begins.

The agency now expects international arrivals to grow by 1-2 percent globally in 2026, down from its January forecast of 3-4 percent. It said the outcome would depend on how long the conflict lasts and its impact on oil prices and overall inflation.

UN Tourism also expects travellers to continue seeking value for money and to travel closer to home or domestically in response to high prices and uncertainty.